Paper
What Does a Green Hydrogen Mandate Cost?
Evidence from the Intermountain Power Project
Overview
This paper studies the cost of producing hydrogen at the Intermountain Power Project, an 840 MW facility, under a renewable-only requirement. Using 17,544 hours of wholesale electricity price data, calibrated solar and wind generation, and grid-carbon-intensity data, I compare a grid-connected pathway with a renewable-only pathway supported by hydrogen storage.
Key Findings
- Dedicated renewable hydrogen costs $8.67/kg, versus $3.88/kg for the grid-connected pathway, a $4.79/kg (124%) premium.
- The premium is driven mainly by lower electrolyzer utilization, not by storage cost.
- The analysis implies a carbon abatement cost of roughly $562 per tonne of CO2, substantially above prevailing carbon-allowance prices.
Method & Analysis
The model compares hydrogen production configurations at a fixed hydrogen output level: a grid-connected pathway and a renewable-only ("island") pathway required to meet the project's green hydrogen mandate, with hydrogen storage used to bridge periods of low renewable output. Electricity costs, calibrated solar and wind generation, and grid carbon intensity are drawn from 17,544 hours of historical data.
Data & Sources
Hourly wholesale electricity price and grid-carbon-intensity data, and renewable technology cost assumptions from the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Annual Technology Baseline.
Limitations
Results depend on the specific project configuration, technology-cost assumptions, and historical price data used. They should be read as evidence from this project, not as a general finding for all green hydrogen mandates.
Downloads
Working paper available on SSRN: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7428658.
Citation & Status
Status: posted as a working paper on SSRN; submitted for peer review at the International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (Elsevier).
Suggested citation for this working paper (not yet peer-reviewed): Akbar, L. (2026). "What Does a Green Hydrogen Mandate Cost? Evidence from the Intermountain Power Project." Working paper. SSRN. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7428658. ORCID: 0009-0005-0593-3939.